Claimant scorecard · AERS v2.1 · Calibrating
Alibaba
1 claim tracked in the Responsibility Ledger. 1 pending grade.
AERS
—
Insufficient closed grades
Pending
1
Open horizons
Closed
0
Graded outcomes
First tracked
Jul 21, 2026
Open horizons
Alibaba: Previewed July 19, 2026, Qwen 3.8 Max, claiming 2.4 trillion parameters and performance "second only to Fable 5" among frontier models, with open-weight release promised "soon"
Invalidator — If August 19, 2026 arrives without (1) published open weights available for download, or (2) independent third-party benchmark results confirming Qwen 3.8 Max scores within 5% of Fable 5 on at least three standard evaluation suites (GPQA, MMLU-Pro, or coding benchmarks), the "second only to Fable 5" claim fails verification.
About this scorecard
The AI Execution Risk Score (AERS) is a 0-100 metric quantifying the gap between Alibaba’s public AI claims and demonstrated delivery. Higher AERS = stronger track record. Each claim above is drawn from a primary source linked in the original Ledger entry; the horizon date is when the claim becomes graded under the published methodology. Materiality is the editor’s assessment of the claim’s formality from 1 (PR statement) to 5 (earnings call or SEC filing).
AERS v2.1 · Methodology in active calibration · Not investment advice.