Responsibility LedgerAppend-only · Dated · Signed

Claimant scorecard · AERS v2.1 · Calibrating

White House

6 claims tracked in the Responsibility Ledger. 6 pending grades.

AERS

—

Insufficient closed grades

Pending

6

Open horizons

Closed

0

Graded outcomes

First tracked

May 11, 2026

Open horizons

  • White House: Finalized July 2026 negotiations with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google on a voluntary framework giving federal agencies up to 30 days to review national security implications of frontier models before public release, with announcement expected before August 1, 2026 deadline

    Invalidator — If August 1, 2026 arrives without a published framework document establishing the voluntary review process, or if one of the three named labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) publicly releases a frontier model in August–September 2026 without federal pre-release review, the claim that a functioning framework exists fails.

    ·Entry 066·Materiality 3/5

  • White House: Signed June 2, 2026, Executive Order 14409 directing Treasury, Defense, and Homeland Security to deliver by August 1, 2026, a classified benchmarking process and voluntary framework for 30-day pre-release government access to covered frontier models

    Grade by Aug 15, 2026· 1 month·Entry 064·Materiality 3/5

  • White House: In advanced talks with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic to finalize voluntary standards for frontier AI model releases, with announcement expected as soon as July 8, 2026

    Grade by Dec 31, 2026· 6 months·Entry 055·Materiality 3/5

  • White House: In advanced talks as of July 1, 2026, with AI companies to finalize voluntary standards for frontier model releases, with announcement expected within one week

    Grade by Aug 1, 2026· 1 month·Entry 054·Materiality 3/5

  • White House: Studying executive order for pre-release vetting of AI models, per Kevin Hassett statement May 6, 2026

    Grade by Nov 18, 2026· 6 months·Entry 020·Materiality 3/5

  • White House: AI working group and pre-release vetting regime, briefed to labs May 4, then dismissed as "speculation"

    Grade by Jan 11, 2027· 8 months·Entry 015·Materiality 3/5

About this scorecard

The AI Execution Risk Score (AERS) is a 0-100 metric quantifying the gap between White House’s public AI claims and demonstrated delivery. Higher AERS = stronger track record. Each claim above is drawn from a primary source linked in the original Ledger entry; the horizon date is when the claim becomes graded under the published methodology. Materiality is the editor’s assessment of the claim’s formality from 1 (PR statement) to 5 (earnings call or SEC filing).

AERS v2.1 · Methodology in active calibration · Not investment advice.